Determination of Background PM2.5 Pollution levels in Nigeria using Hidden Markov Model

ABSTRACT

Determining Background Particulate Matter equal to or less than 2.5 microns (BPM_2.5) is crucial for understanding population exposure levels and devising mitigation measures. This study investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of BPM_2.5 concentration in three Nigerian states (Abuja, Kano, and Lagos) from 2000 to 2022 using Hidden Markov Models (HMM). The HMM characterizes the PM_2.5 data records into BPM_2.5 profiles using 3-state and 5-state training algorithms. The Hidden Markov Models (HMM) were employed to estimate BPM_2.5 concentrations, with the 5-state HMM outperforming the 3-state model. Analysis of background PM_2.5 concentrations reveals higher levels in Kano compared to Abuja and Lagos, particularly during the dry season months. Spatial distribution highlights the influence of seasonal variations and geographical factors on air quality. The observed disparity in BPM_2.5 concentrations between the states emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to mitigate air pollution and safeguard public health. The mean BPM_2.5 concentrations for Abuja, Kano, and Lagos using the 5HMM model range from 16.4-18.4 µg/m³, 20.5-30.6 µg/m³, and 13.5-14.9 µg/m³, respectively. Dry season months, particularly December to January, consistently exhibit higher background BPM_2.5 levels across the states. Conversely, the wet season months from May to August generally display lower levels. The contribution of BPM_2.5 in ambient air during the High (HPP), Moderate (MPP), and Low Pollution periods (LPP) in Abuja was 69.09 %, 33.05 %, and 15.15 % respectively. In Kano, the contribution of BPM_2.5 in ambient air during HPP, MPP, and LPP was 84.81 %, 47.47 %, and 23.13 % respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution of BPM_2.5 in ambient air during HPP, MPP, and LPP in Lagos was 57.72 %, 22.06 %, and 12.61 % respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to improve air quality in Nigerian states.

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