ABSTRACT
Leptospirosis is a bacterial disease that spreads through the urine of infected animals. Humans can get leptospirosis through direct contact with the urine of infected animals or through water, soil, and food contaminated with animal urine (zoonosis). This condition is most common in warm climates, like Indonesia. Over the last 5 years, 2023 is the year with the highest number of Leptospirosis cases in Central Java, namely 884 cases, with 37 cases of Leptospirosis occurring in Pati. The number of fatalities in Central Java due to this disease was 139, of which 18 were in Pati. This means that by the end of 2023, there will be 19 victims who will recover from this disease, even though the CFR (case fatality rate) of this disease in Pati reaches 48.65%. In Pati, it was recorded that from 2019 to 2023 there was always an increase in cases of leptospirosis: in 2019 there were 5 cases, in 2020 there were 24 cases, in 2021 there were 16 cases, in 2022 there were 28 cases, and in 2023 there were 37 cases. The research method used is the SIR model, based on the results of equilibrium point calculations and basic reproduction to make final conclusions. The data was taken from the number of residents infected with Leptospirosis reported to the Central Java Health Service and population data from the Central Statistics Agency of Pati Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The calculation results show the stability of the equilibrium point, the instability of the endemic point, and the basic reproduction value , so it can be concluded that one day in the future, the leptospirosis disease in Pati will disappear by itself.
References
- [1] Andini, Riska, and Yuliani Puji Astuti, “Penerapan Teori Antrian Bongkar Muat pada Docking Kapal Tanker.” MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika2 ,2021.
- [2] Jiang, Tongzheng, “A Model to Predict the Propagation of Ebola.” 2015 International Conference on Education, Management, Information and Medicine. Atlantis Press, 2015.
- [3] Noviantri, Viska, and Kevin Stewart, “Analisa Penyebaran Penyakit Leptospirosis Berdasarkan Model SIR-SI.”
- [4] Risman, Junero, “Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Toksoplasmosis dengan Pengaruh Vektor.” Journal of Mathematics UNP4 ,2022.
- [5] Lestari, Diah Nur, and Agung Prabowo, “PENENTUAN PREMI BERSIH TAHUNAN ASURANSI KESEHATAN MENGGUNAKAN RETURN ON INVESTMENT UNTUK PENYAKIT DENGAN MODEL PENYEBARAN SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTED-RECOVERED.”
- [6] Yarus, Zack, “A Mathematical look at the Ebola virus.” Published online, May 11 2012.
- [7] Yong, Benny, and Livia Owen, “Model Penyebaran Penyakit Menular MERS-CoV: Suatu Langkah Antisipasi Untuk Calon Jamaah Umrah/Haji Indonesia.” Research Report-Engineering Science2, 2015.
- [8] Handayanto, Rahmadya Trias, and Herlawati Herlawati, “Efektifitas Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) di Kota Bekasi Dalam Mengatasi COVID-19 dengan Model Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR).” Jurnal Kajian Ilmiah2, 2020.
- [9] Adi-Kusumo, Fajar, et al, “Model berbasis SIR dalam prediksi awal penyebaran covid-19 di daerah istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY).” Jurnal Matematika Thales1 ,2020.
- Pertiwi, Julia Indah, Arrival Rince Putri, and Efendi Efendi, “Analisis Perilaku Model Sir Tanpa dan dengan Vaksinasi.” BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan2 ,2020.
- Tjolleng, A., Komalig, H. A., & Prang, J. D., “Dinamika perkembangan HIV/AIDS di Sulawesi Utara menggunakan model persamaan diferensial nonlinear SIR (susceptible, infectious and recovered)”. Jurnal Ilmiah Sains, 2013.
- Ellis, W. A, “ Animal leptospirosis. Leptospira and leptospirosis”,2015.
- Haake, D. A., & Levett, P. N. ,” Leptospirosis in humans. Leptospira and leptospirosis”
- World Health Organization, “Leptospirosis worldwide”. Weekly Epidemiological Record= Relevé épidémiologique hebdomadaire,1999.
- Cooper, I., Mondal, A., & Antonopoulos, C. G. ,” A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020.
- Wang, J. J., Zhang, J. Z., & Jin, Z., Analysis of an SIR model with bilinear incidence rate. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 2010.
Download all article in PDF
