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Home 2025

Prediction of Monkeypox Cases Using the Adam Bashforth–Moulton Numerical Approach to the Verhulst Logistics Model

Authors: Yurid Audina, Rifki Saefulah, WSN 200 (2025) 119-131

2025-02-04
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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ABSTRACT

Monkeypox is a viral disease that resembles smallpox in general, usually called monkey pox. Monkeypox (MPXV) is a zoonotic orthopoxvirus (OPX) that is endemic to West and Central Africa. Transmission of monkey pox (monkeypox) to humans can occur through direct contact between humans and infected animals or by eating meat that is not cooked properly. This research discusses the Logistic Equation using the Adam Bashforth Moulton method to predict monkey pox cases, which is then solved first using the 4th order Runge Kutta method to obtain an initial solution, then using Adam Bashforth as a predictor and Adam Moulton as a corrector. Logistic equation for population growth with carrying capacity in Africa 𝐾= 116,064,589,944 with step size h = 1, with a growth rate of 1%. The numerical solution to the logistic equation with the growth of monkey pox cases at time t=24 with a step size h=1 is 12,948 people.

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WSN 200 (2025) 119-131


 

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