ABSTRACT
The “Arab Spring”—a wave of pro-democracy demonstrations that began in Tunisia in late
2010 and swept across Libya and Egypt—finally reached Syria in early March 2011. The unrest
resulted from a combination of socio-economic and political problems that had been building for years
and that affect especially Syria’s large rural population. One of the things that preceded the failure of
the nation-state of Syria and the rise of ISIS have been considered the effect of climate change and the
mega-drought that affected that region. However, four years after the conflict began, it has
degenerated into a civil war with more than 200,000 deaths and about 4 million registered refugees.
And it has put Syria at the center of nasty geopolitical struggles. In most evaluations of the Syrian civil
war an future, the most neglected analysis is: How water resources will affect the ongoing civil war
and how changing situation will affect hydropolitics relations between countries after the war. A far
more sustained and thoughtful consideration of Syria’s future, and how the country will be governed
democratically, is needed. There are at least seven scenarios for the future of the country from Assad
victory to, stalemate, country breaks up, regional conflict, chaos etc. In details, autonomy in some
regions, confederal, federal, independent all or a bicameral parliament and highly decentralized
provincial structures, whatsoever the type of New Syrian system will be, there will be transboundary
water issues that are more conflicted and somehow different than it was before. ISIS has been the
most important and powerful actor in the civil war. It has played a very important role to change the
region till now. If current political system of the Syria is changed or fragmented after the civil war that
is likely to be, we can easily say that ISIS has turned the “Middle East Hydro Politics” upside down.
Even if it is not well known right now, this change will affect future of the regional stability with
climate change effects in near future.
References
[1] Josepha Ivanka Wessels (2015) Challenging hydro-hegemony: hydro-politics and local
resistance in the Golan Heights and the Palestinian territories, International Journal of
Environmental Studies, 72:4, 601-623, DOI: 10.1080/00207233.2015.1041836
[2] Wessels, J., 2009, Water crisis in the Middle East: An opportunity for new forms of
water governance and peace. Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International
Relations. John C. Whitehead School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton
Hall University, USA, 10(2), 131-141
[3] Zeitoun, M. and Warner, J., 2006, Hydro-hegemony – a framework for analysis of
trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy, 8, 435–460.10.2166/wp.2006.054
[4] Zeitoun, M. and Mirumachi, N. 2008, Transboundary water interaction I: Reconsidering
conflict and cooperation. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and
Economics, 2008(4), 297–316.10.1007/s10784-008-9083-5
[5] Murphy, R. and Gannon, D., 2008, Changing the landscape: Israel’s gross violations of
international law in the occupied Syrian Golan. Yearbook of International
Humanitarian Law, 11, 139–174.10.1017/S1389135908001396
[6] Cooley, J.K., 1984, The War over Water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3–26.10.2307/1148352
[7] Okbazghi Yohannes (2009) Hydro-politics in the Nile basin: in search of theory beyond
realism and neo-liberalism, Journal of Eastern African Studies, 3:1, 74-93, DOI:
10.1080/17531050802682788
[8] Amer, Salah, Yacob Arsano, Atta el-Battahani, Osman El-Tom Hamad, Magdy Abd ElMoenim Hefay, Imeru Tamrat and Simon A. Mason. Sustainable Development and
International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin. Aquatic Sciences 67 , no. 1 March
2005: 3-14
[9] Benvenisti, Byal. Collective Action in the Utilization of Shared Fresh Water: The
Challenge of International Water Resources Law. The American Journal of
International Law 90, no. 3 July 1996: 388-415
[10] Arsano, Yacob, and Imeru Tamrat. Ethiopia and the Eastern Nile Basin: Riparian
Perspectives of International Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin. Aquatic Sciences
67, no. 1 March 2005: 15-27
[11] Falkenmark, Malin. Global Water Issues Confronting Humanity. Journal of Peace
Research 27, no. 2 May 1990: 177 -190
[12] Hulme, Mike. The Changing Rainfall Resources of Sudan. Transactions of the Institute
of British Geographers, New Series, 15, no. 1 1990: 21-34
[13] Kagwanja, Peter. Calming the Waters: The East African Community and Conflict over
the Nile Resources. Journal of East African Studies 1, no. 3 November 2007: 321-337
[14] Suvarna, Shrevani. 2006. Development Aid in an Environmental Context: Using
Microfinance to Promote Equitable and Sustainable Water Use in the Nile Basin.
Environmental Affairs Law Review, 33(2): 449-84
[15] Shlomi Dinar (2012) The Geographical Dimensions of Hydro-politics: International
Freshwater in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, Eurasian Geography
and Economics, 53: 1, 115-142, DOI: 10.2747/1539-7216.53.1.115
[16] Brochmann, Marit and Paul Hensel. The Effectiveness of Negotiations over
International River Claims. International Studies Quarterly, 55, 3:859-882, 2011.
[17] Brunnee, J. and S. J. Toope. The Changing Nile Basin Regime: Does Law Matter?
Harvard International Law Journal, 43, 122-131, 2002
[18] Gleick, Peter. Water and Conflict. International Security, 18, 1:79-112, 1993
[19] Lowi, Miriam. Rivers of Conflict, Rivers of Peace. Journal of International Affairs 49,
1:123-144, 1995
[20] Spykman, Nicholas. Geography and Foreign Policy I. The American Political Science
Review, 32, 1:28-50, 1938
[21] Spykman, Nicholas and Abbie A. Rollins. Geographic Objectives in Foreign Policy II.
The American Political Science Review, 33, 4:591-614, 1939.
[22] Zeitoun, Mark and Jeroen Warner, Hydro-hegemony—a Framework for Analysis of
Transboundary Water Conflicts, Water Policy, 8, 5:435-460, 2006
Download all article in PDF
Support the magazine and subscribe to the content
This is premium stuff. Subscribe to read the entire article.