ABSTRACT
The growing amalgamation of renewable sources of energy in power systems has increased the need for accurate energy demand prediction within smart grids. Recent progress in machine learning has improved predictive capabilities; however, most of these models are complex in structure and lack interpretability. This study proposes a novel GradientSHAP which fuses gradient boosting algorithms with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values to enhance predictive performance while improving model interpretability. GradientSHAP is developed to capture complex ad non-linear structure in the time-series and weather data for a robust energy demand predictions. SHAP values are computed together with the boosting algorithm to provide meaningful information into the impact of the individual features on the model predictions. The European energy demand dataset is utilized in this study to evaluate the proposed GradientSHAP, and the model performance is compared with traditional models such as linear regression and support vector regression (SVR). GradientSHAP outweighs these traditional models, obtaining the lowest training and test Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the highest R-squared (R²) score, demonstrating optimal predictive capability. Detailed and concise explanation of feature contributions is presented via SHAP plots to enhance model transparency. The proposed GradientSHAP achieves a significant milestone in energy demand prediction and demonstrates a substantial ability to balance high predictive accuracy and interpretability without a trade-off, which is essential in predicting energy demand in smart grids.
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