ABSTRACT
The objective of the study is to analyze the wet and dry spells for Maha crop season at the Kantale, Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The agricultural operations mainly depend on the success of dry and wet spell conditions. The Markov Chain probability model is a very useful tool for studying wet and dry spells which helps in planning, irrigation schedules, and farming operations ensuring optimal water use of crops. The success or failture of crops is determined by the amount, pattern, and intensity of rainfall particularly in rainfed agriculture. In this study, the Markov Chain probability model has been employed to compute and predict the initial and conditional probabilities of the occurrence of wet and dry spells. The probabilities of wet week (W), wet week preceded by wet week (W/W), dry week (D) and, dry week preceded by dry week (D/D) have been computed for 10, 20, and 40mm threshold limits. The initial and conditional probability results exhibited that the occurrence of wet spells is more than 50% starting from week 38 and continuing up to succeeding week 2 at a 10mm/week threshold limit which ranges between 53% – 91%. Consequently, the land preparation could be taken up from week 38th and finished on or before week 41st (before 14th October), week 42 is a more suitable time for sowing/planting especially for 3-month paddy varieties. Taking into consideration the various threshold limits, the 3 and 3 1/2-month paddy varieties are the most suited for this study area. The long-term paddy varieties such as 4 or more months paddy variety will be affected by dry spells during either mid or late-crop season in Maha cultivation.
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