Mathematical Model Investigating the Impact of Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Approaches on the Spread and Control of COVID-19 in Uganda

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a model that incorporates pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for asymptotic and symptomatic COVID-19 was developed and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The basic reproduction number R₀, was obtained using the next-generation matrix approach, and the parameters that drive the infection were identified through the sensitivity analysis of the R₀. To determine the model’s short- and long-term behavior, the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states were obtained and analyzed for stability or otherwise. The model was validated using the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Uganda from March 21 to July 21, 2020. In line with the paper’s aim, we simulated the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on targeted epidemiological compartments.

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